ForestBoard

Uan aa Boa wrote:

What constitutes an acceptable price for peace is to be determined by the people and government of Ukraine.

I think we’re trying to say mostly the same thing, and I agree with you entirely. I didn’t add it, but my personal opinion that the 1991 borders have to be maintained is specifically because that is what Zelenskyy and the vast majority of Ukrainians themselves have stated as their goal and as the only acceptable outcome. If Zelenskyy and the Ukrainians were willing to part with Crimea (or if they make that determination in the future) as the price of peace, then that would also be fine with me. But insofar as Crimea had been part of Ukraine, and insofar as Ukraine voluntarily gave up the nuclear arsenal in its territory after the breakup of the Soviet Union in exchange for a broken promise that the 1991 borders were sacrosanct, my personal opinion is therefore that if the Ukrainians will only settle for the 1991 borders, then I’ll support them in that. They have a right to their land.

But as you say rightly, it’s their call, and if Crimea or parts of Eastern Ukraine are an acceptable price for peace, then that’s also their call. In that sense, I guess don’t really see the war as primarily a proxy conflict between Russia and the West. That may be an element, but ultimately, I think it’s a revanchist land grab because of Russia’s poor post-Soviet geography and its economic and political ramifications.

Luna Amore wrote:

2nd one, it's less busy.

...says the guy with a gif from a movie as his flag, I know, I know. :p

I'm sure you do, also good to see you talking again.

Prusmia wrote:

I'm sure you do, also good to see you talking again.

You say that like I was in some horrible accident.

Luna Amore wrote:

You say that like I was in some horrible accident.

No you weren't in an accident, you just owe me for your tab.

Luna Amore wrote:

Time to mosey.

Prusmia is covering my tab.

I never agreed to this.

Einswenn wrote:

From what Russian government says now, Ukraine’s fate seems to be decided...

I mean, I think it was going to come down to this since the failed seige on Kyiv. From then on, the rest of this has played out in a pretty straightforward manner (hindsight is 20/20 though), and we're just waiting for the dominos to fall now. Russia was never going to just call it a day and leave Ukraine be; any land that's going to be reclaimed in the Donbas and Kherson regions is going to be contested by Russia at least until Putin is gone (probably much longer), and Russia is going to do whatever they can to hold on to what they have. They've been bombing civilian centers with no military positions for a while now (and they stepped that up when the Kherson offensive started), and they've already been doing forced conscription in occupied territory, which is a war crime. Not to Russia, because they believe it's theirs, but that's a bit shaky.

But the announcement of full conscription is an escalation for sure. If I'm understanding correctly, the whole reason they called it a "special operation" was to avoid triggering wartime laws surrounding conscription, since a lot of Putin's support comes from the middle-class urban citizens that this is going to conscript. They had no issues taking rural citizens and ethnic minorities and throwing them at Ukraine before this, so my read is that they are only moving to conscription now that it's not sustainable anymore (though I'm no expert, if I'm wrong please correct me). While Russia isn't democratic, so public support isn't necessary to Putin's reign, it will be pretty hard for him to hold on to power if he loses support. It takes one person in a high position to assassinate, and it only takes a handful to coup the entire government. And if a local law enforcement branch goes rogue with support of the people, it's going to be hard for Russia to take control back. If Putin is willing to risk destabilization of his home territory, I don't think he's going to admit defeat.

So I see three options for the future here. One, Putin is deposed and Russia falls into civil unrest. That's not great, since I think the vast majority of Russians are innocent, at least to the point where their society collapsing is undue harm to them. Two, this turns into a forever war, where Russia will lose control of most of the Kherson and Donbas regions, and only hold the rest under the names of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics in areas where they really do have civilian support. Also not great, because in a way, that's almost a return to square one, where Russia resorts to funding seperatist malitias and priming the area as a powder keg. Three, Russia uses nukes. This is the least likely in my opinion, since Russia has been threatening to use nukes at every step and still hasn't. I know nuclear land mines are a risk, but we've not seen it yet. But if enough of the military chain is delusional enough to believe Russia itself is being invaded, it could happen, and that seems to be the next step.

I honestly don't think conscription will help Russia much, since manpower was never the issue. There's two main reasons Russia's initial plan of a swift victory failed, neither of which would be fixed by just adding more people. One, Russian logistics were hot garbage. Ukraine wasn't connected to the Russian rail network, which was their spine, and they just didn't have vehicular support. That's why they kept losing tanks. You can't just slap a tank down somewhere without support, or one guy with a rocket launcher is going to take it out. There's a reason all modern militaries have tanks surrounded with non-tank units. Two, the Ukrainians hate the Russians, at least in the areas their invasion stalled out in. It's way harder to keep control of an area when the locals hate you. If you're going to invade a city with percieved overwhelming force, and the response from the locals is to start making molotov cocktails, you may just want to call it a day. The only thing more people (absent of other change) would do in these cases is increase the amount of death, and that's not great.

Really, there's a good chance there's regions Russia will be able to hold because they have local support, and I'm going to make the controversial statement that if an area wants to be independent of Ukraine, they should be (with one addendum, explained later). The issue is guaging that and proceeding in the most productive manner. Holding a referendum post-invasion with no option to stay with Ukraine may have some confounding variables when it comes to accurately guaging support (which is why Crimea is hard to guage), and I don't think Russia would let people who don't want to be Russian just leave.

Regardless, I think if a majority of a region wants to be independent because they want to oppress a group they don't like, they shouldn't be independent, and Russia doesn't have a good track record here. I don't think the Donestsk and Luhansk People's Republics want to oppress minorities or LGBTQ people (more than Ukraine does, at least), so I'm fine with them being independent, but I think Russia wants to do both of those, so I'm not fine with them being a part of Russia.

The whole thing is complicated, and I'd love to see a third-party, transparent referendum, followed by open borders for a few years, but until that happens, I'm fully pro-Ukraine. Even if these regions want independence, that doesn't give Russia the right to invade. It'd be like the U.S. marching on Ottawa during the Quebec referendum. If the war somehow stops and a fair referendum is held in these areas, I'll absolutely criticize Ukraine if they don't honor the people's will, but that's not where we're at right now.

So yeah, stay safe. If you find yourself on the frontlines through some cruel twist of fate, I'd unironically recommend surrenduring if you're not willing to die for Putin's foolhardy invasion, but I'm not in a position to judge.

As for Crimea, apply the same stuff I've already said to that situation. I don't care much about it's strategic importance or who has rights to it on paper. Borders are imaginary lines on maps, and they have no right to trump the will of the people living there.

Canaltia while I do agree with what you’re saying, I must comment on this: putin’s threats to use nukes isn’t about Ukraine but rather the third parties who’d wish to intervene the war militarily. In his latest speech today he meant Ukraine as well but as for his former warnings those were directed to the NATO countries most of all. Since Ukraine won’t stop attacking breakaways states after they “become part of Russia” Putin might use something unprecedented among his weapons and that’d be fatal for many people’s hopes

Luna Amore wrote:

"He who carries the ban hammer never patheth a tab." - Maxeronomy 11:13

Oh we'll see about that~

*prusmia has been banned from nationstates*

N-Day registrations are up. Looks like there's 3 feeders and a sinker in one faction. I wonder who's going to win this year?

...:: Official Foreign Affairs Post ::...

It's my greatest pleasure to announce Prusmia as our newest addition to our team of ambassadors, and our new friendly voice of kinship to The North Pacific. Join me in wishing Prusmia the best of luck!

I have reached out to our community members currently listed on the Ambassadors dispatch on our region page, with the question whether they'd be willing and able to take up their posts again in their previously assigned regions.

That said, I'd love to welcome new members to our team of ambassadors, so if you'd be interested in trying out this element of NationStates, have a look at the Ambassadors dispatch to read what it's all about. If you find yourself interested in becoming an Ambassador of Forest, please send me a telegram. I know it says to contact Uan at the bottom of the dispatch, but that is no longer up-to-date. I'll work on updating the dispatch as soon as possible!

Murmuria wrote:

I'll be a year older next week.

It seems to me that you'll only be a week older.

Ruinenlust wrote:

Now, the Northern Hemisphere begins six months of longer nights than days, and the polar and temperate regions will move into a period of quiet and slumber.

Surely I'm not the only one dreading the inevitable change. I joke that my one complaint about living in Texas is that it gets too cold in the winter. Maybe it's time to get a house in Chile, the flags look similar enough. Although, I suppose the next winter storm will present a bit of a thrill. I have such fond memories of driving on iced highways at 4am leaving the ER.

Ownzone wrote:

In honour of a legendary nation like Luna Amore joining our humble region and as a pick-me-up for everybody that needs a little positivity in these troubled times. Can this be added to the Forest spotify list?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M7lWU3mHoTc

I'll see what I can do _{I should really make that collaborative one day}